Recession Watch

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Market and Fed Finally Agree on the Economy. What If They’re Both Wrong?

Apple and Amazon reports to show latest consumer spending trends, freight hauler Yellow to seek bankruptcy, and other news to start your day.

Eurozone Economy Picks Up Pace in Second Quarter -- Update

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Fed officials were slow to fight inflation. Now they may be too easy on it.

Inflation may abate for a time but then soar again, writes Peter Morici.

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‘No chance we’re having a soft landing’: Stock-market strategist David Rosenberg gives Powell’s Fed no credit — and no mercy

With recession in his forecast, Rosenberg steers investors into bonds and rate-sensitive stocks including utilities, consumer staples and REITs.

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‘It’s a great, great time for bulls’: Soft-landing views solidify in U.S. stock market

Reports showing stronger-than-expected GDP and easing inflation are buttressing the financial market's confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid a downturn.

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Finding the Best Bond Opportunities Right Now: Pimco’s CEO

Pimco CEO Manny Roman urges diversification from stocks, thanks to a suddenly target-rich fixed-income market. Also on the table: mortgage-backed securities, REITs, and Treasuries.

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Is The Housing Recession Over? Why This Economist Thinks So.

An increase in pending sales in June is among the signs that the housing market has shaken off its mortgage rate-driven recession, according to the National Association of Realtors.

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Dow snaps its longest winning streak since 1987 as strong second-quarter GDP data rattles investors hoping for rate cuts

The Dow Jones Industrial Average snaps a historic winning streak on Thursday as U.S. stocks turned lower in afternoon trade, erasing early gains scored after a report showing the U.S. economy picked up steam in the second ...

Dow snaps longest win streak in almost 40 years as U.S. economy’s resilience threatens higher rates for longer

10-, 30-year Treasury yields end above 4% after U.S. GDP, report on BOJ

Treasury yields jump after U.S. data points to a still-resilient economy and a report that the Bank of Japan may tweak its yield-curve control policy.

Dow falls 230 points, stocks drop as Treasury yields climbs above 4%

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The Economy Defies Expectations. GDP Surges 2.4%.

Consumers aren't pulling back. Increases in spending on both goods and services was a large contributor to the expansion.

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What recession? GDP speeds up to 2.4% in the spring

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annual pace in the second quarter running from April to June, propelled by strong consumer spending and a rebound in business investment.

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CBO projects U.S. economy will avoid recession, but unemployment to near 5% next year

U.S. gross domestic product is likely to grow during 2023's second half, according to new projections released Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office.

U.S. Economy Stronger This Year than Previously Expected, CBO Says -- WSJ

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Inflation is heading to zero, according to the one factor Jerome Powell absolutely will not discuss

The one thing you won't hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell discuss on Wednesday is the money supply, which is falling at a precipitous rate.

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The Bank of Japan Is Repeating the Fed’s Mistakes

If a central bank waits for inflation to take hold before it starts raising interest rates, it will have waited too long, writes Desmond Lachman.

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Morgan Stanley credits ‘Bidenomics’ in lifting its U.S. economic-growth outlook

Pointing to infrastructure and manufacturing revivals, Morgan Stanley projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of 2023, much higher than its previous call.

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Here are 10 reasons why Wall Street’s inevitable recession never arrived

Last year, most major Wall Street analysts and portfolio managers believed the U.S. economy would inevitably slide into recession in 2023 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The only real question was how bad wo...

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Microsoft Shows Investors the Money From AI. Why Its Meta Deal Threatens Google.

Why the U.K.’s falling inflation is good news for the Fed, the ‘Taco Tuesday’ trademark fight, and other news to start your day.

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Look Past Big Tech Stocks. Here Are 40 Picks From Our Roundtable Pros.

Our 10 Midyear Roundtable panelists see value in healthcare, industrial, media, and other stocks that the market has overlooked.

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Extreme weather may douse sizzling stock market, warns Schwab strategist

Our call of the day from Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. says investors need to be aware

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U.S. Recession Odds Cut by Goldman Sachs. It’s All in the Data.

The bank said recent numbers have reinforced its confidence that “bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession.”

Treasury yields end lower after soft China data underscores global risks

Rates on U.S. government debt finish slightly lower on Monday after weak growth data from China raises concerns about a slowing global economy.

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Americans Have Quietly Deleveraged. It May Explain the Economy’s Resilience.

If the Federal Reserve has pulled off a soft landing, it may be due to shifts in the composition of U.S. debt since 2008, writes Larry Hatheway.